Contrary to what you might hear from the U.S. government or read in the New York Times, Prime Minister Netanyahu has enforced a “quiet freeze” on settlement construction outside the major settlement blocs and Jerusalem. Nonetheless, write Elliott Abrams and Uri Sadot, the Jewish population in these areas has been growing steadily over the past several years, most likely due to the growth of families already living there. If this trend continues, it will have important policy implications (free registration required):
Even at current population-growth rates, the idea of over 100,000 Israelis living outside the major settlement blocs may render the Clinton parameters for a peace agreement increasingly irrelevant. The idea of evacuating every Israeli living [in such places] will seem increasingly unrealistic. The United States may be forced to move, then, from insisting on their removal to challenging the Palestinian insistence that every single one of them leave. The old idea that Palestine must be totally free of Jews has always been morally offensive; with every passing year it also becomes more and more impractical. It could gradually be replaced with the understanding that a certain number of Jews will remain as resident aliens if a Palestinian state is ever to be established.
With 1.7 million Arabs living as full citizens in Israel, the idea of tens of thousands of Jews living in Palestine should not seem beyond consideration. Security arrangements for Israelis who voluntarily choose to live in a Palestinian state rather than move back to Israel would be immensely complicated, and in many eyes impossible. But the same can be said about any plan that would force tens of thousands of them to leave their homes.
With no Palestinian state likely for the foreseeable future, much more attention should be dedicated to real life on the ground today: Hamas’s activities in Gaza, the performance of the Palestinian Authority and its institutions, the lack of democratic institutions and free elections, current security arrangements, and measures to help the West Bank economy, for example. The sole focus on getting back to the negotiating table is at odds with reality in the Middle East.
More about: Israel & Zionism, Palestinian statehood, Settlements, US-Israel relations, West Bank