The Coming Fatah Crackup

Even as France, the U.S., and others continue to press Israel to pursue negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas, his political party, Fatah, appears to be on the brink of a schism that could further weaken his authority. Khaled Abu Toameh writes:

Last week, more than half the members of the Fatah Revolutionary Council [one of the organization’s two governing bodies] signed a petition calling for a “correctional revolution” in their faction. . . . The petition, which calls for major reforms in Fatah, is first and foremost directed against Abbas and his old-guard colleagues in the Palestinian leadership.

The petition carries the signatures of several Fatah officials who until recently were considered Abbas loyalists. . . . This challenge joins the one issued [earlier] by several other Fatah officials, who have come out in public against Abbas’s autocratic rule. . . .

Never, in its 50 years of existence, has Fatah been so divided. Some of its top brass have already defected to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. . . .

The “revolution within a revolution” taking place within Fatah ought to set off alarm bells in the international community. Fatah’s extreme weakness casts serious doubt on its ability to deliver peace with Israel and oversee the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Read more at Gatestone

More about: Fatah, Israel & Zionism, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Peace Process

Hizballah Is Learning Israel’s Weak Spots

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.

Read more at Ynet

More about: Hizballah, Iron Dome, Israeli Security