Tuesday marked the 500th anniversary of the battle of Marj Dabiq, which took place just outside the Syrian town where, according to a tradition adopted by Islamic State, an apocalyptic battle is yet to take place. Akhilesh Pillalamarri explains how the confrontation, in which the Sunni Ottoman empire defeated Mamluk Egypt, shaped the subsequent history of the Middle East:

The Mamluk sultanate had been the dominant power of the Islamic world for three centuries, ruling over a stable heartland in Egypt as well as over the holy cities of Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem, while much of the rest of the Islamic world was fractured and in a chaotic state of warfare in the aftermath of the Mongol invasions. . . .

The Mamluk sultanate collapsed soon [after its defeat at Marj Dabiq, and thereafter] Egypt became an Ottoman province. Additionally, control over the Hejaz passed to the Ottomans, with the sharif of Mecca transferring his allegiance from the Mamluk to the Ottoman sultans. Most importantly, [the Ottoman sultan formally took the title of caliph]. . . .

[Thereafter, the] Ottoman empire became much more resolutely Sunni as a result of gaining control over the caliphate and millions of new Sunni Arab subjects. . . . In religious matters, the empire innovated little and was generally ill-disposed toward Shiites. The caliphate, in fact, became an ever more important institution, a rallying point for Muslims during the spread of European colonialism.

Thus, the conservatism of much of the region and the use of Islam as [the ideological basis for resistance to European influence] date from Ottoman times. On the other hand, the union of imperial Ottoman power and wealth with religious functions also alienated many Arabs from the caliphate. Puritanical reactions culminated in the rise of the Wahhabi movement in central Arabia in the 18th century.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.