Leading Syria’s bloody reconquest of the rebel stronghold in Aleppo was Hizballah, which, according to Yoram Schweitzer, is the “most professional” of the various ground forces fighting to maintain Bashar al-Assad’s rule. (Russia is fighting mainly from the air, and Iranian forces are present primarily in advisory and supporting roles.) Schweitzer argues that Hizballah must no longer be considered a terrorist or insurgent group but an army. (Interview by BICOM; audio available at the link below.)

Hizballah, through its deep involvement in the Syrian civil war, has shifted from a force of “resistance” into an occupying force [and has] totally aligned itself with the Assad regime, having shared in its brutality against the local population. To date it’s quite clear that Hizballah is a very focal player in the Syrian arena. Iran, of course, is running the show; Hizballah is totally committed and subject to Iranian policy. . . . . Hizballah is doing the hard work for the Iranians in Syria and is responsible for establishing new organizations composed of local volunteers and foreign fighters from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. . . .

Hizballah has virtually abandoned its “defensive” role against Israel—which it once boasted of so often—or at least put it aside temporarily. It is mainly focused in Syria and is immersed in this war. Hizballah knows that the results of this war will have concrete repercussions for its future in Lebanon and its connections to the regime of Assad. . . .

[Hizballah’s] experience in Syria has qualified it to become a better fighting force. Hizballah is no more merely an organization, it is an army. . . . In the past, it used to employ guerrilla and terrorist tactics, but now it’s fighting as an armed force with a very clear-cut structure. . . .

As for Israel, . . [it] is looking very soberly at what is going on in Syria. It looks at Hizballah’s expenses, resources invested, number of casualties, and the fact that Hizballah is immersed in the quagmire of Syria which prevents it from bothering Israel. [However], Hizballah is gaining more and more experience, it is being trained, being equipped, it has partnerships not only with Iran and Syria, which of course will guarantee their full support without any limitations, but also with Russia.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.