The Islamic Republic tested a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, in violation of the UN Security Council’s resolution ratifying the nuclear deal. Michaela Dodge comments:

The nuclear deal, adopted in 2015, effectively rewarded Iran’s noncompliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and regional support for terrorism by giving it billions of dollars. The agreement failed to dismantle key elements of Iran’s nuclear program, leaving the decision to “go nuclear” firmly in the hands of the Iranians. Iran has already been caught trying clandestinely to procure illicit nuclear and ballistic-missile technologies, including components for biological and chemical weapons.

[President] Trump has multiple tools at his disposal to weaken Iran and strengthen the U.S. position in the region. Most importantly, the administration should ensure that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. It should strictly enforce the [terms of the deal] and not continue to give Iran a free pass on its illicit activities. . . .

The Trump administration should [also] strengthen ballistic-missile defense, not only because of Iran’s ballistic missiles but because ballistic-missile capabilities in the hands of other rogue states are improving. A proper resourcing, emphasis on future technologies (particularly space-based), and a sound re-evaluation of assumptions that guide the current U.S. ballistic-missile defense posture are in order. The Trump administration has precious little time to fill the void left by President Barack Obama’s ill-conceived policies in the region. Swift and strategic action is required.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.