Tehran claims that last week it successfully launched a Simorgh rocket, designed for putting a satellite into space; according to the U.S. military, the launch was a failure. Even if so, writes Farzin Nadimi, the Islamic Republic, no doubt with help from North Korea, is growing close to mastering the technology for such launches—the same technology needed for an intercontinental ballistic missile:
Iranian officials . . . evidently have laid the groundwork for future Simorgh launches with satellites as heavy as 250 kilograms into a longer-lasting 500-kilometer low-earth orbit. Bearing this weight would mark a fivefold increase from the previous-generation Iranian Safir satellite launch vehicle (SLV), for which four successful launches—and several unsuccessful ones—are on record. . . .
An SLV [shares] many common technologies with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and a Simorgh-type ballistic missile is estimated by rocket engineers to have a 7,500-kilometer range with a 700-kilogram warhead. This range falls short of the continental United States but covers all of Europe and Asia. . . . Iran also has experience with reentry vehicles [which are also necessary for a working ICBM]. . . .
Depending on funding and launch capability, satellites even larger than the 250-kilogram examples (around the maximum weight a prospective Simorgh-2 could carry) might emerge in the longer term. . .
With this latest launch, Iran’s space program has emerged from a three-year dormancy initiated by President Hassan Rouhani, probably [in part due to] technical and budgetary constraints as well. Further launches can be expected in the near future. . . . Iran insists its military-run space program is for peaceful purposes only and that its ballistic missiles are for conventional deterrence at a range no greater than 2,000 kilometers. Such rhetoric and Iran’s technical limitations notwithstanding, the mere possibility of diverted know-how from an SLV to an ICBM program [should] unsettle many Western capitals. Previous close cooperation between Tehran and Pyongyang will provide no further solace.
Read more at Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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