Iran Tests Its Enemies’ Resolve

Twice in the past week, members of the Iran-Russia-Syria alliance challenged the U.S. and its allies. On February 7, a formation of pro-Assad units—apparently led by Iranian officers and comprising local Iran-backed militias, Afghan troops imported by Tehran, Syrian government troops, Russian mercenaries, and Russian-backed “Islamic State hunters”—crossed the Euphrates river and opened fire on the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They thereby violated the “deconfliction” agreement prohibiting them from operating east of the Euphrates. Then, Iran sent a drone into Israeli airspace. Michael Eisenstadt and Michael Knights argue that the Islamic Republic is deliberately probing its adversaries and taking stock of their reactions:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to have spearheaded both of these recent provocations, in line with its long track record of conducting drone operations inside Syria and its leading role in coordinating the Assad regime’s offensive operations south of Deir Ezzour. The question is how the two tests are related, if at all.

[Furthermore], both incidents occurred against a background of growing Iranian confidence that the Syria intervention has saved the Assad regime, limited the United States to a tenuous foothold in the northeast [of the country], and allowed Tehran to establish a forward base of operations against Israel. The IRGC is now able to collect intelligence on Israel directly, reinforce and resupply Hizballah by land, and potentially transform the Golan Heights into an active military front.

Moreover, while Syrian and Hizballah drones have flown over Israel in the past, this is the first known incursion by an Iranian drone. . . . [T]he incident demonstrates that Iran is now willing and able to use Syria as a base for operations inside Israel, marking a new phase in tensions between the two adversaries. . . .

Given the likelihood that Iran will continue testing American and Israeli redlines in Syria, the Trump administration should pursue a more coherent approach. [One priority is] policing U.S. redlines more consistently. The United States might consider resuming strikes in response to future chemical-weapons incidents; these could justifiably be broadened to include nearby Iranian or proxy elements supporting Assad regime forces. Moreover, strikes on high-value Iranian targets not directly connected to such provocations would further complicate Iran’s calculations and make U.S. strikes less predictable. . . .

Read more at Washington Institute for Near East Policy

More about: Iran, Israel & Zionism, Israeli Security, Russia, Syrian civil war, U.S. Foreign policy

Why South Africa Has Led the Legal War against Israel

South Africa filed suit with the International Court of Justice in December accusing Israel of genocide. More recently, it requested that the court order the Jewish state to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip—something which, of course, Israel has been doing since the war began. Indeed, the country’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC) has had a long history of support for the Palestinian cause, but Orde Kittrie suggests that the current government, which is plagued by massive corruption, has more sinister motives for its fixation on accusing Israel of imagined crimes:

ANC-led South Africa has . . . repeatedly supported Hamas. In 2015 and 2018, the ANC and Hamas signed memoranda of understanding pledging cooperation against Israel. The Daily Maverick, a South African newspaper that previously won an international award for exposing ANC corruption, has reported claims that Iran “essentially paid the ANC to litigate against Israel in the ICJ.”

The ANC-led government says it is motivated by humanitarian principle. That’s contradicted by its support for Russia, and by [President Cyril] Ramaphosa’s warmly welcoming a visit in January by Mohamed Dagalo, the leader of the Sudanese-Arab Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. Ramaphosa’s smiling, hand-holding welcome of Dagalo occurred two months after the RSF’s systematic massacre of hundreds of non-Arab Sudanese refugees in Darfur.

While the ANC has looted its own country and aided America’s enemies, the U.S. is insulating the party from the consequences of its corruption and mismanagement.

In Kittrie’s view, it is “time for Congress and the Biden administration to start helping South Africa’s people hold Ramaphosa accountable.”

Read more at The Hill

More about: International Law, Iran, South Africa