President Trump has stated his intention of bringing American troops home from Syria “very quickly” after Islamic State’s defeat, but it is not yet clear what this means in practical terms. Abdelillah Bendaoudi cautions that declaring victory too soon could pave the way for the group’s resurgence:

Currently, Islamic State (IS) is merely going through a transition period, shedding the territorial aspirations that were once part of its identity. Toppling the group from its de-facto capital [in the Syrian city of Raqqa] was only one part of the much larger battle to contain the organization, as IS’s losses in Syria have failed to eradicate its appeal to potential recruits. As a matter of fact, according to some estimates, 3,000 fighters and more than 10,000 loyalists are still active on Syrian soil.

As history shows, this manpower is more than sufficient to wage a new insurgency in the currently liberated areas and exploit divisions among the local population, which have been exacerbated by conflict. Any remaining pockets can wait for a more opportune time to reemerge once American troops are extracted, mirroring the aftermath of the Obama administration’s withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. . . . [There], remnants of al-Qaeda were able to survive their defeat [in 2007] and reorganize, regroup, and reemerge as IS because . . . U.S. disengagement from the region exacerbated sectarian tensions, which continued to destabilize [Iraq] for years. [The result was] a weak state that struggled to respond to the new threat of IS.

As IS seeks to rebuild itself and prepare for its next move, the lesson of al-Qaeda should not be lost. While developing in Iraq, IS benefited from existing circumstances: first, the beginning of the Syrian conflict; second, socioeconomic grievances that excluded local populations from access to [social] services; and third, sectarian tensions that prevented members of certain religious groups from obtaining key jobs and climbing the social ladder. Both Syria and to a lesser extent Iraq still struggle with these issues, thereby continuing to offer ripe conditions for new local insurgencies. Without U.S. support, local allies would likely be overrun if IS reemerges, forcing President Trump to redeploy U.S. troops.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.