Despite recent statements from Moscow calling on foreign forces to leave Syria, Eyal Zisser believes that the Islamic Republic’s troops and proxies will be staying in-country, without objection from Vladimir Putin:
[I]n contrast to the reports in the Israeli media, neither Putin nor Bashar al-Assad asked the Iranians to leave Syria at all. Indeed, the Russian president called for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syrian soil. First and foremost, however, he was referring to American forces, which still control one-quarter of Syrian territory, mostly in the Kurdish areas in the northeast, and which also grant protection to the rebels in the country’s south. The Russians would also like the Turks to leave the areas they control in Syria’s north. Finally, they want Israel to let Assad retake control of the Syrian Golan Heights and the country’s south, and to eradicate the rebels whom, until recently, Jerusalem has supported.
Iran isn’t in Russia’s crosshairs, because Moscow doesn’t see it as a competitor or adversary (for now, at least). Iran is simply the vessel the Russians use to advance their goals in Syria.
The Russians understand Israel’s concerns pertaining to Iran. They also don’t want Israel to . . . pummel the Assad regime, which they have all but dragged to the finish line and victory. Hence they are willing to facilitate efforts to remove Iranian forces from the Golan border, a demand they believe the Iranians can accept—as a temporary, confined concession on the path to Tehran’s greater goal of establishing a permanent foothold in Syria. . . .
This doesn’t mean that Russia and Iran aren’t competing or that inherent tensions don’t exist; both want to control Syria when the civil war ends. We can assume that Assad, too, will eventually wish to rid his country of Iran’s invasive presence and influence in Syria’s internal affairs, which threatens to permeate all government institutions, the army, and even the [ruling] Alawite sect. Assad also won’t want the Iranians to embroil him in a clash with Israel. [But] he’ll cross that bridge when he gets there. For now, and certainly in the weeks and months ahead, Assad and Putin both need the Iranians. After all, next to the Russian jets in the air, the tide of the war was turned, and the survival of Assad regime ensured, by Iranian and Hizballah forces on the ground.
More about: Iran, Israeli Security, Politics & Current Affairs, Russia, Syrian civil war