On Thursday morning, Israel destroyed an Islamic State (IS) cell on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. While IS is on the run in much of Syria, in the past year its presence has been expanding in the Golan and the adjacent area as fighters fleeing other parts of the country regroup there. The cell destroyed by Israel seemed to be preparing an attack. Yoav Limor comments on the volatile situation:

Tensions on the Golan border will likely persist for some time, until the situation on the ground is stabilized. During this time, there are enough elements active in the area who can exploit the situation to cause mayhem. It’s doubtful the Iranians or Hizballah will be the immediate agents of this mayhem, as they work according to an organized plan of action and longer-term goals. The danger could come from IS refugees looking to channel their jihad anywhere they can or to go out in a final blaze of glory; or other rebel groups who, after working with Israel in the past, will seek to exculpate themselves [in the eyes of their countrymen] by attacking it.

The IDF is aware of these dangers, and therefore won’t reduce its forces on the Golan for the foreseeable future, despite the end of the Syrian civil war. . . . The IDF will revisit this deployment down the line, but its operational plan for 2019 is to change nothing.

Russia will play a central role in molding this post-war reality. It could send a military-police force to the area and deploy it along the border. From Israel’s perspective, this would be both beneficial and detrimental. On the one it would provide an address for Israel to turn to [with complaints about violations of the 1974 armistice with Syria]; on the other hand, there is reason to be concerned that the Russians (much like the UN force in Lebanon) will not only fail to lift a finger against potential threats but will impede Israel’s ability to thwart them.

As for IS, its impending expulsion from Syria does not portend its ultimate demise. Beyond the Sinai Peninsula, which is flooded with fighters who continue hounding Egyptian security forces, other branches—from Africa to the Far East—ensure that the fundamental ideology serving as the bedrock for the organization that has tormented the world since 2014 is still alive and kicking.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.