In recent years, security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA)—sharing intelligence, coordinating the movement of forces, and protecting the safety of civilians—has been largely successful, primarily because of the shared desire to keep Hamas from taking over the West Bank. But lately Mahmoud Abbas has threatened to bring this arrangement to an end. Neri Zilber discusses the PA’s possible rationale, and the possible consequences:
In order to halt intelligence-sharing and coordination, an order would come down from Abbas to [PA security officers] saying: no more communication with your Israeli counterparts, no more dialogue regarding “shared interests.” Such silence from the Palestinian side would inevitably ring alarm bells in Israel, which is likely the point. The Palestinians’ hope would be that the Israeli security establishment [would] once again champion their cause in government deliberations.
On the ground, however, the Israeli army would respond quite differently. In all likelihood, Israel would feel the need to take more assertive action inside Palestinian-controlled territory in order to make up for the absence of PA security forces. . . . Increased raids would likely trigger not only a popular backlash among ordinary Palestinians, but direct friction between Israeli and Palestinian security forces (due to the lack of coordination). . . . [T]he potential for miscalculation on both sides would greatly increase.
For the Palestinian public, increased Israeli raids would necessitate a move . . . in which the people are allowed to “vent”—not at the PA, of course, but at Israel. With the PA riot police pulled from the streets of the West Bank, anything becomes possible: marches on checkpoints, marches on settlements, instability, escalation, chaos. The Israeli public would undoubtedly take notice, and realize how fragile the situation in the West Bank actually is.
For the Palestinian leadership, shattering the myth of a sustainable, indefinite status quo might be worth the gamble. It is not a coincidence that the Palestinian leadership, including Abbas, keeps linking security cooperation to the overall existence of the PA. “The end of security cooperation,” the Palestinian ambassador to Egypt recently observed, “equals the collapse of the PA.” He is almost certainly right. It might even be the plan.
Read more on Tower: http://www.thetower.org/article/what-will-happen-if-the-palestinians-really-end-security-cooperation/