Can Iran’s leaders be trusted to put their economic self-interest ahead of their hatred for the U.S. and Israel? This is a point of contention between supporters and opponents of the pending nuclear deal. Yet even if the Islamic Republic is guided solely by rational self-interest—as President Obama has repeatedly claimed—it is unlikely, argues Michael Oren, to keep up its end of any bargain:
Even now, without a deal in place, it seems obvious that the sanctions will start to unravel. Consequently, the ayatollahs sensibly have determined that, by dragging out the negotiations, they can wrest further concessions from the United States. They can keep more centrifuges, more facilities, and a larger uranium stockpile.
Why, logically, would Iran believe Obama’s claim that “all options are on the table”? On the contrary, Iran has remained the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism—brazenly threatening America’s allies in the Middle East . . . without facing military or even diplomatic retribution from the United States.
The Iranians have taken note of how the White House helped overthrow Libya’s Muammar Ghaddafi after he gave up his nuclear program but shied away from North Korea when it tested more weapons. Iran can see how Bashar al-Assad, by ceding part of his chemical arsenal, went from being America’s problem to America’s solution, and then to barrel-bombing his countrymen with impunity. Iranian rulers understood they could count on obtaining their nuclear program’s objectives of regime survival and regional supremacy without dismantling a centrifuge.
Obama’s argument not only fails logic’s test but also history’s. Anti-Semitism, the president [claims], “doesn’t preclude you from being rational about the need to keep your economy afloat [or] being strategic about how you stay in power.” Except, in one infamous example, it did. The Nazis pursued insane ends. Even during the last days of World War II, as the Allied armies liberated Europe, they diverted precious military resources to massacring Jews.
Read more on Los Angeles Times: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-oren-iran-is-not-a-rational-state-20150619-story.html