The recent string of terror attacks in Egypt suggests that President Sisi’s extended crackdown has had little success, and that the jihadists are growing stronger. Elliott Abrams comments on the implications for Egypt, and for Israel:
The Egyptian army has given no evidence that it knows how to combat the terrorists effectively. [And] the terrorists are getting better at it. Last year they appeared as a ragtag bunch holding Kalashnikovs. . . . Now they have attacked several targets in one day in a well-coordinated movement, they wear uniforms, and they have more advanced equipment such as anti-tank missiles. This is the Islamic State [as] we have come to know [it] in Iraq.
There are [also] connections between the terrorists in Sinai and Hamas in Gaza. There are accusations that Hamas has done some training of these jihadists in Sinai, has provided them with funds, and has given medical treatment to wounded jihadists in Gaza hospitals.
Israelis know that developments in Sinai will present threats to Israel sooner rather than later. One must hope that in addition to protecting their border, the Israelis are giving the Egyptians some advice on counter-terror strategies. President Sisi’s overall strategy is a blunt one: repression. It is not going to work—in Sinai or anywhere in Egypt. This is partly because the targets of repression are not only the terrorists but any critics of the government. The government of Egypt now has about 40,000 political prisoners, and it is crushing all political activity—moderate, secular, liberal, democratic as well as extremist. That’s a formula for instability in the medium and perhaps even short term.
Read more on Pressure Points: http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2015/07/02/terror-in-sinai/