Thus far, Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates have generally refrained from attacking Israel, although they have gotten dangerously close to its borders. But, argue Shlomo Brom and Yoram Schweitzer, any number of regional developments could change the organization’s calculus:
In the scenario of a de-facto division of Syria [among the warring parties], the confrontation between enemy groups could gradually die down, whereupon Islamic State and [other] Salafist jihadist entities might turn more of their attention to Israel. Also, competition among the various actors in Syria is liable to develop over their desire to prove their ideological commitment to the struggle against Israel. The spread of IS to southern Syria might not only generate [more opportunities for attacking] Israel, but also lead to friction with the Druze in the Jabel Druze region. This friction might prompt internal pressure in Israel to intervene.
Furthermore, pressure from Islamic State on Jordan could result in Israel positioning itself alongside Jordan in a fight. In Sinai too, the failure of Egyptian army actions to defeat the Salafist groups there may well lead to the reality of a jihadist entity being in control of that territory. [If] Egypt ceases its efforts against it, Islamic State is liable to turn its attention to Israel.
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