Is a Third Lebanon War on the Horizon?

Ten years after the second Lebanon war, Hizballah is stronger than ever, with an upgraded arsenal, Russian air support, extensive fighting experience, and overland supply lines connecting it directly to Iran. Yet it is tied down in the Syrian civil war, losing men, and no longer the darling of the Arab world that it was in 2006. The U.S., meanwhile, is increasingly realigning itself with Hizballah’s Russian and Iranian protectors. Reuven Azar, Tony Badran, and Michael Doran discuss this complex situation, what it means for Israel and the region as a whole, and what the next president might do. (Moderated by Lee Smith; video, 85 minutes.)

Read more at Hudson

More about: Hizballah, Iran, Israel & Zionism, Israeli Security, Second Lebanon War, Syrian civil war, U.S. Foreign policy

What a Strategic Victory in Gaza Can and Can’t Achieve

On Tuesday, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant met in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Gallant says that he told the former that only “a decisive victory will bring this war to an end.” Shay Shabtai tries to outline what exactly this would entail, arguing that the IDF can and must attain a “strategic” victory, as opposed to merely a tactical or operational one. Yet even after a such a victory Israelis can’t expect to start beating their rifles into plowshares:

Strategic victory is the removal of the enemy’s ability to pose a military threat in the operational arena for many years to come. . . . This means the Israeli military will continue to fight guerrilla and terrorist operatives in the Strip alongside extensive activity by a local civilian government with an effective police force and international and regional economic and civil backing. This should lead in the coming years to the stabilization of the Gaza Strip without Hamas control over it.

In such a scenario, it will be possible to ensure relative quiet for a decade or more. However, it will not be possible to ensure quiet beyond that, since the absence of a fundamental change in the situation on the ground is likely to lead to a long-term erosion of security quiet and the re-creation of challenges to Israel. This is what happened in the West Bank after a decade of relative quiet, and in relatively stable Iraq after the withdrawal of the United States at the end of 2011.

Read more at BESA Center

More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, IDF