Despite recent gains in other parts of the country, Bashar al-Assad and his allies have almost completely lost their grip on the Syrian portion of the Golan Heights. The area is now controlled primarily by a mixed multitude of rebel groups, including the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, opposed both to the regime and to Islamic State (IS). The good news is that, between these forces and Israel’s targeted strikes, Hizballah has been unable to maintain a foothold in the area. The bad news is that a branch of IS has established a stronghold in the southern Golan, abutting the Israeli side, and its power is expanding. Fabrice Balanche writes:
[The relative quiet along the Israeli border] has become increasingly fragile. IS is the most immediate threat to it, followed by Nusra Front, whose leaders could quickly shift their anti-Assad jihad toward Israel if circumstances warranted it. After all, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda still believes that the ultimate goal of its struggle is the recovery of Jerusalem and the destruction of Israel. . . .
[In addition], attacking Israel would have extra value for IS, particularly given its recent setbacks elsewhere. History shows that hitting Israel or otherwise showing support for the Palestinian cause is a frequent recourse for Arab despots on the ropes. For example, when Saddam Hussein was under attack by the international coalition in 1991, he tried to mobilize the Arab world in his favor by launching missiles on Israel. For now, the area controlled by Islamic State’s southern branch is cut off from the rest of its territory, but linking them is not unattainable.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-islamic-state-threat-in-the-golan-heights