Whatever dedication, resources, or creative thinking the Trump administration might bring to bear in trying to resolving the Israel-Palestinian conflict, writes Clifford May, the circumstances for success are, at the moment, simply absent:
Israeli leaders from Labor on the left to Likud on the right are convinced that the withdrawal of their military forces from the West Bank would leave a vacuum—and that jihadists would fill it.
Consider the precedents. In 2005, every Israeli soldier and settler was pulled out of Gaza. Within two years, Hamas had taken control and begun launching missiles at Israeli villages and cities. . . . Five years earlier, the Israelis withdrew from southern Lebanon. That strengthened Hizballah, Iran’s proxy, with whom other wars had to be fought, the last in 2006. . . . Back in 1982, as part of a historic peace agreement signed a few years earlier, Israelis handed the Sinai peninsula over to Egypt. Today, a branch of Islamic State wages an insurgency there. . . .
The Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas—who turns eighty-two this month—does not appear to share Hamas’s religious [dedication to Israel’s eradication]. But were he to end his long career by shaking Netanyahu’s hand on the White House lawn, he’d be labeled a traitor, not just by Hamas but also by those seeking to succeed him in the West Bank, as well as by the Islamic Republic of Iran which, as a direct result of President Obama’s policies, is currently the ascendant power in the Middle East. All this suggests that now is not the time for dramatic diplomatic initiatives. Significant changes will occur once Abbas passes from the scene. American policymakers should be getting ready.
Meanwhile, it’s worth prodding the Palestinians to develop the institutions that both define and sustain true statehood. Lacking those, they will remain dependent on the “donor community” [consisting of the U.S., Europe, and some Arab states] indefinitely. Worse, a Palestinian state could arise, achieve recognition—and then fail. Who would benefit from that?
Read more on Washington Times: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/mar/7/israel-palestine-peace-process-cannot-be-rushed/