On Friday in Gaza City, two men assassinated Mazen Fuqha: a high-ranking member of Hamas formerly imprisoned in Israel for his role in a 2001 bus bombing that killed nine; in 2011, he was released with dozens of other terrorists in exchange for the captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Although it is unclear who was responsible for Fuqha’s death, Hamas is blaming it on Palestinians collaborating with Israel. The question now is whether and how Hamas will respond, and where that response could lead. Yoni Ben Menachem writes:
Fuqha moved freely around Gaza without bodyguards, demonstrating the complacency of senior Hamas figures who were convinced that they were safe from any interference. This sense of security for Hamas officials has now been shattered. From now on, Hamas officials will begin to move around with armed escorts and security guards. . . .
Fuqha was released together with Yahya Sinwar, recently elected as the new Hamas leader of Gaza. Now, many view Sinwar as the next possible target. He is known for his radical line against Israel, and Fuqha’s killing poses a leadership challenge to Sinwar, who must now decide on a response against Israel. Until now, Sinwar had been very careful not to violate the cease-fire agreement, brokered by Egypt between Israel and Hamas after the 2014 Gaza war, . . . despite recent Israeli air-force strikes in Gaza in response to the firing of six rockets by Salafist-jihadist groups. . . .
The likelihood that Hamas will start firing rockets at Israel in response is low, since Hamas is busy with internal elections and rebuilding in Gaza. In recent days, the Palestinian government has begun to distribute $40 million, which Saudi Arabia has donated, to hundreds of families in Gaza to enable them to rebuild their homes that were damaged in the 2014 war. Rocket fire into Israel would result in a strong Israeli response and another round of fighting that is not currently in Hamas’s interest.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the military wing of Hamas will respond with terrorist acts perpetrated by its “dormant cells” in the West Bank against Israelis living there or inside the Green Line. This underlines the importance of tightening the security coordination between Israeli and Palestinian security forces. The Israel Defense Forces are preparing, in any case, for the possibility of attacks ahead of the Passover holiday, and now it is essential to be vigilant.
Read more on Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs: http://jcpa.org/assassination-senior-hamas-member-gaza-mean-escalation/