The Syrian Salafist rebel group Tahrir al-Sham—which is closely tied to al-Qaeda—carried out a suicide bombing last week in the Syrian Druze village of Hader, located just a few miles from the Israeli side of the Golan Heights. The village’s residents, like most Syrian Druze, have remained loyal to Bashar al-Assad throughout the civil war, and are thus considered enemies by Tahrir al-Sham. In response to pressure from Israeli Druze, the IDF warned Tahrir al-Sham that any attack on Hader will be repulsed forcefully. But protecting Syrian Druze, Yoav Limor explains, poses a dilemma for Jerusalem:

While the covenant between the Israeli Druze and the state of Israel is clear and unquestionable, [and means Israel will defend Druze outside its borders as it would Jews], Hader is an enemy village whose allegiance lies with Assad. In fact, Hizballah cells have been sent from the village to operate against the IDF. Supporting Hader, therefore, would not just support the Druze, but help Assad in the civil war in Syria.

On the other hand, refraining from aiding Hader would not only be a slap in the face of Israeli Druze, some of whom have relatives in Hader, but would also aid the rebels, in this case, al-Qaeda. No one in Israel has any illusions about what will happen if Hader is conquered and terrorists will be a stone’s throw away from Majdal Shams [a Druze village on the Israeli side of the Golan].

The Israeli decision was unambiguous. Just like the last time it was feared the village would be captured, in 2014, Israel made it clear last Friday that it would protect Hader as part of its covenant with the Druze in Israel. This, however, should not be taken to mean that the IDF intends to send ground forces into Syrian territory. Israel dominates Hader topographically and could stop the rebels by an aerial operation and long-range [artillery] fire.

Even though Israel made a clear call, the problem remains. All anyone who wants to drag Israel into the Syrian civil war, or even just to undermine its close ties with the Druze community, needs to do is attack Hader. This does not bode well for Israeli strategy in Syria, as it takes some of the control over events in the area away from Israel and places it in the hands of irresponsible third-parties in the Golan Heights.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.