For decades, America’s refusal to establish its embassy in Israel’s capital has been justified on the grounds that moving it there would unleash Arab violence. Hillel Frisch notes that, four months after the White House announced the move, such fears have been exposed as unfounded:
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, probably the most reputable source of data on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has for many years tabulated significant Palestinian terrorist attacks in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. . . . There were thirteen attacks, [according to Amit], in the period before the decision [to move the embassy] (that is, from August to early December 2017), compared with fourteen attacks from December 2017 to early April 2018. The number of terrorist attacks in both four-month periods paled before the period covering April through July 2017, in which there were 38 attacks, considerably more than the two periods together since then. . . .
But perhaps data for serious terrorist attacks are not the appropriate measure to assess instability? . . . The number of arrests Israel makes is [probably a better] indicator of levels of other forms of violence and protest. . . . Addameer, a Palestinian NGO concerned with the welfare of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, records . . . the total number of prisoners in Israeli detention centers on a monthly basis. The numbers through March 2018 show no significant increase. . . . If anything, the figures indicate a slight decline in arrests.
Perhaps the best indication that President Trump’s decision did not bring Palestinians to confront Israeli security in the streets is Hamas’s “March of Return” campaign that began at the end of March on “Land Day” and is supposed to continue up to May 14, the date of the establishment of the state of Israel, which Palestinians call “the Nakba,” the catastrophe. If Trump’s decision was so inflammatory, why the need for a new campaign theme to mobilize Palestinians to violence?
Read more on Jerusalem Post: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Trumps-decision-on-Jerusalem-has-not-led-to-an-increase-in-violence-551372