Last month, after rejecting offers of military aid and arms sales from Moscow for nearly a decade, Beirut agreed to accept $5 million in support, channeled indirectly so as not to require a formal reneging on its commitments to the U.S. In addition, Russia has increased trade with Lebanon, discussed helping the country exploit its offshore gas reserves, and encouraged connections between the Russian Orthodox Church and Lebanese Orthodox Christians. Anna Borshchevskaya and Hanin Ghaddar parse Vladimir Putin’s motives:
Putin has . . . sought to cultivate his image as a peacemaker in Lebanon, whether between the pro- and anti-Syria camps or with Israel. This includes working with Hizballah at times; Russia does not consider it a terrorist organization and has hosted the group’s officials in the past. Yet Hizballah and its Iranian patron have reservations about Moscow’s activities inside Lebanon. . . .
Moscow’s interest [in Lebanon] is rooted in a strategy of portraying itself as the most credible broker for regional conflict resolution, particularly regarding Iranian-Israeli tensions. Many [Lebanese] officials are growing more concerned about the prospect of Israel attacking Hizballah targets in their country, since the group is reportedly moving its precision missile-development efforts back home from Syria. Russia apparently hopes to mediate an agreement like the one reached in southern Syria, this time managing escalation between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon. To do so, it needs greater [influence] in Lebanon. . . .
Moscow [also] remains persistent in its quest to establish a military presence inside Lebanon. [Putin, moreover] has repeatedly showed an eagerness to assume a leading role there, and a willingness to invest the time and resources necessary for reaching that objective. In doing so, he is more interested in gaining leverage than in finding genuine resolutions to the refugee issue or other pressing problems. . . . Beirut and its Western allies should therefore be wary of the Kremlin’s gifts.
More broadly, Putin has long expressed hope that the United States will withdraw from the affairs of Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East. For now, Washington still has leverage via its aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces, and this relationship has helped convince Beirut to reject past security agreements with Russia. But Moscow is steadily filling the gaps wherever Washington is absent.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-read-lebanons-acceptance-of-russian-military-aid