On November 1, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), an Iran-backed terrorist group based in the Gaza Strip, launched a barrage of rockets at nearby towns in Israel. The IDF responded by striking military targets in the Strip and, yesterday, in the wee hours of the morning, killed Baha Abu al-Ata, one of PIJ’s senior commanders. The terrorist group responded by launching some 200 rockets over the course of the day, sending Israelis to bomb shelters not just in the immediate vicinity of Gaza but also in the center of the country and as far north as Tel Aviv. Khaled Abu Toameh analyzes the political calculations of both PIJ and Hamas:

Hamas [seems] very cautious in its response to the assassination. By Tuesday afternoon, it remained unclear whether Hamas has officially joined PIJ and other groups in firing rockets at Israel. Hamas is reluctant to engage in a new war with Israel because it knows that would mean the end of its rule.

In recent months, Ata was among PIJ leaders who visited Cairo a number of times for talks with Egyptian intelligence officials on ways of preserving ceasefire understandings reached between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian factions earlier this year under Egyptian auspices. The invitation to Cairo came after the Egyptians realized that PIJ and its patrons in Tehran were not too pleased with the ceasefire understandings.

The PIJ leaders are reported to have told the Egyptians that their group is not interested in an all-out military confrontation with Israel, at least not at this stage. [Instead] their group has decided to endorse a strategy of “engaging the enemy” [by] pursuing sporadic terror attacks in order to keep Israel “busy” and show that PIJ is not part of any ceasefire understandings.

PIJ is one of the few groups in the Gaza Strip that does not hesitate to challenge Hamas openly or to disagree with it on crucial issues. . . . The assassination of Abu al-Ata puts Hamas in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the last thing Hamas leaders want is to be seen preventing Palestinians from launching rockets at Israel to avenge the killing of a top military officer. On the other hand, the assessment among Palestinians yesterday afternoon is that Hamas will not allow PIJ to drag the Gaza Strip into a military adventure with Israel. Hamas’s leaders, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, are also aware that the IDF is capable of making them meet the same fate as Abu al-Ata should Hamas join the PIJ rocket attacks on Israel.

Analyzing the recent direct Iranian attack on Israel, and Israel’s security situation more generally, Michael Oren looks to the 2015 agreement to restrain Iran’s nuclear program. That, and President Biden’s efforts to resurrect the deal after Donald Trump left it, are in his view the source of the current crisis:

Of the original motivations for the deal—blocking Iran’s path to the bomb and transforming Iran into a peaceful nation—neither remained. All Biden was left with was the ability to kick the can down the road and to uphold Barack Obama’s singular foreign-policy achievement.

In order to achieve that result, the administration has repeatedly refused to punish Iran for its malign actions:

Historians will survey this inexplicable record and wonder how the United States not only allowed Iran repeatedly to assault its citizens, soldiers, and allies but consistently rewarded it for doing so. They may well conclude that in a desperate effort to avoid getting dragged into a regional Middle Eastern war, the U.S. might well have precipitated one.

While America’s friends in the Middle East, especially Israel, have every reason to feel grateful for the vital assistance they received in intercepting Iran’s missile and drone onslaught, they might also ask what the U.S. can now do differently to deter Iran from further aggression. . . . Tehran will see this weekend’s direct attack on Israel as a victory—their own—for their ability to continue threatening Israel and destabilizing the Middle East with impunity.

Israel, of course, must respond differently. Our target cannot simply be the Iranian proxies that surround our country and that have waged war on us since October 7, but, as the Saudis call it, “the head of the snake.”