On April 2, Yahya Sinwar, the ruler of the Gaza Strip, threatened to “cut off the air to six million Zionists and take what we want from [them]”—presumably by overwhelming Israel with rocket fire—if his subjects were to face a shortage of medical supplies for treating coronavirus patients. But since then, something unprecedented has happened: complete quiet along Gaza’s border with Israel, with no attacks either by Hamas or by other groups. Eyal Zisser comments:

Israel is very worried about the possibility of a coronavirus outbreak among Gazans, since Israel sees itself and is seen by the world as responsible for what happens there—a harsh reminder to anyone who thought or wanted to believe that [it] actually “disengaged” back in 2005. But the specter of an outbreak is of even more concern to Hamas, whose leaders are very worried about how the pandemic could affect their status.

The economic crisis that emerged as a result of the pandemic is only making things in Gaza worse, a sort of straw that is breaking the Gaza camel’s back. The protests over rising unemployment, the cost of living, food shortages, and more are all directed against the ruling entity—Hamas.

As a result, tones have been moderated, and a white flag is being tentatively waved. [The head of Hamas’s] politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, [is now] talking about the coronavirus as a mutual strategic threat facing everyone, and a historic watershed moment that will allow for a deal with Israel. The most important issue for Israel is, of course, the return of the bodies of fallen Israeli soldiers and the release of the Israeli captives being held by Hamas.

[O]nce the issue of Israel’s fallen and captives is resolved, resolutions to many other issues can be reached. In the meantime, the Gaza border protests have stopped, as well as any intermittent rocket fire on southern Israel.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.