Among the many forces that have vied for power in the Syrian civil war is the Nusra Front, a local franchise of al-Qaeda. In 2016 it changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and repositioned itself as an independent organization that remained dedicated to jihad and an extremist interpretation of Islam. Whether this was a real break with the parent organization or merely a public-relations exercise remains unclear. The group now has thousands of fighters holed up in the Syrian province of Idlib, where they are under sustained assault from Bashar al-Assad and his allies. Eli Galia and Yoram Schweitzer discuss their fate:
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will [likely] face two main options: one is to fight to the bitter end, followed by the break-up of an organization that is built on a strong chain of command and structured hierarchy into a network of autonomous guerrilla and terrorist cells that would operate in northwestern Syria. This would mean postponing the realization of [its goal of] territorial control of a piece of land under an Islamic way of life. . . . Its cells [would] continue to operate on both sides of the Syria-Iraq border, attacking . . . military targets and even essential infrastructure sites such as oil fields and natural-gas facilities. There would then be military instability and a lack of security in northwestern Syria for an extended period of time.
The second option is a conscious decision to dissolve the organization and merge its operatives within other Islamist and revolutionary frameworks as part of a future political arrangement [in Syria]. This step, even if it is considered drastic, could, in accordance with the circumstances, be based on pragmatic reasoning as well as ideological considerations.
For Israel, the fate of jihadists in Idlib is not an immediate source of military concern. There is the possibility, [however], that groups from the jihadist camp will relocate to [the Syrian portion of] the Golan Heights, or an enclave of such forces [could] remain holed up in remote places in the Syrian desert far from Israel’s borders. Another disturbing possibility is well-trained jihadist forces fleeing Syria to various places around the world and reinforcing the manpower serving the global jihadist camp. If there is a renewed international wave of terrorist attacks, “Syrian alumni” could also pose a danger to Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.
Read more on Institute for National Security Studies: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/hayat-tahrir-a-sham/