Most Israelis, let alone most Americans, know little about either Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates—save that they are small and rich. Among the most salient facts about these two countries, writes Martin Kramer, is that citizens make a minority of their populations, creating a potential demographic problem far more severe than Israel’s. For other reasons too, above all their proximity to a larger, more powerful, and dangerous Iran, these nations are vulnerable. Kramer explains how these weaknesses affect their relations with the U.S., and now with the Jewish state:
The rulers [of both Bahrain and the UAE] are perfectly aware of their vulnerability, unlike those Arab rulers who were toppled during the “Arab Spring.” So they have perfected survival strategies that work amazingly well. The most important is to secure and keep the support of the West, and especially the United States, as a counterweight to the forces of envy that surround them.
But it goes beyond that. After all, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak had U.S. support, and it didn’t save him. So the UAE, in particular, has tried to look, sound, and feel like a showcase of the West. True, it can’t embrace democracy, but it’s embraced a degree of cultural and religious tolerance that has impressed the West.
Why now? The United States is pulling back from some of its Middle Eastern commitments. From some, but not all—and certainly not its commitment to Israel, which Americans of all stripes see as “one of us,” even if they disagree with some of its policies. Full and normal relations with Israel raise the UAE and Bahrain to a new category: from “friendly Arab countries that sell us oil” to “best Arab friends of our own best friend, Israel.”
Israel reached this landmark because it’s strong. The Gulf Arabs have reached it because they’re vulnerable. Israel seeks to translate its strength into recognition. The Gulf Arabs seek to translate their recognition into strength. Just how the two sides will negotiate this unequal partnership isn’t in their formal agreements. It’s in the politics ahead.
Read more on Sandbox: https://martinkramer.org/2020/09/18/israels-vulnerable-new-friends/