Over the weekend, the news broke that on August 7, Mohammad al-Masri—the al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s number two—was gunned-down on the streets of Tehran alongside Osama bin Laden’s daughter-in-law. According to multiple unnamed U.S. officials, he was assassinated by Israeli agents operating at Washington’s behest. Masri had organized the 1998 attack on the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, which left a total of 224 people dead; in 2002 he orchestrated a botched attack on Israeli targets in Mombasa, Kenya, that left thirteen dead. Yoav Limor seeks to explain both the reasons for the strike on Masri, and for the decision to leak the details:

Israel’s declared policy is that assassinations are only a means for preventing future attacks, not exacting vengeance. Although Israeli officials have claimed Masri was busy planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets across the globe, it isn’t very likely considering the fact that al-Qaeda—which for years now has struggled to carry out high-profile attacks—is focusing its efforts on fighting the Americans and moderate Sunni regimes in the region, not Israel.

It’s more reasonable to assume that Israel lent a hand to its most important ally, despite concerns that doing so would make it a target of al-Qaeda. There is clear operational value in this, but also considerable deterrence value. Toward al-Qaeda, obviously, but mainly toward Iran, which understands it is again penetrated and is in the crosshairs of the Israelis and Americans. This message should not be underestimated: Iran is mulling its nuclear options.

Masri’s presence in Tehran also gives the lie to the Obama administration’s claim that Shiite Iran could be a useful ally in the fight against Sunni extremist groups like al-Qaeda. Of course, such a demonstration is hardly necessary, seeing as Osama bin Laden noted in correspondence with his lieutenants that his organization’s “core facilitation pipeline” ran through the Islamic Republic. Limor remarks:

Iran, which is fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria, is hosting one of the organization’s most senior figures because he serves its interest by fighting the Americans in Afghanistan. It will continue doing this as long as it serves its objectives.

Early Friday morning, Israel attacked military installations near the Iranian cities of Isfahan and nearby Natanz, the latter being one of the hubs of the country’s nuclear program. Jerusalem is not taking credit for the attack, and none of the details are too certain, but it seems that the attack involved multiple drones, likely launched from within Iran, as well as one or more missiles fired from Syrian or Iraqi airspace. Strikes on Syrian radar systems shortly beforehand probably helped make the attack possible, and there were reportedly strikes on Iraq as well.

Iran itself is downplaying the attack, but the S-300 air-defense batteries in Isfahan appear to have been destroyed or damaged. This is a sophisticated Russian-made system positioned to protect the Natanz nuclear installation. In other words, Israel has demonstrated that Iran’s best technology can’t protect the country’s skies from the IDF. As Yossi Kuperwasser puts it, the attack, combined with the response to the assault on April 13,

clarified to the Iranians that whereas we [Israelis] are not as vulnerable as they thought, they are more vulnerable than they thought. They have difficulty hitting us, but we have no difficulty hitting them.

Nobody knows exactly how the operation was carried out. . . . It is good that a question mark hovers over . . . what exactly Israel did. Let’s keep them wondering. It is good for deniability and good for keeping the enemy uncertain.

The fact that we chose targets that were in the vicinity of a major nuclear facility but were linked to the Iranian missile and air forces was a good message. It communicated that we can reach other targets as well but, as we don’t want escalation, we chose targets nearby that were involved in the attack against Israel. I think it sends the message that if we want to, we can send a stronger message. Israel is not seeking escalation at the moment.