Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Newest Challenges Come from the Right

Dec. 24 2020

Because the Knesset failed to pass a budget by midnight on Tuesday, Israel will be holding elections—for the fourth time in two years—in March of 2021. The failure to pass a budget, however, is only the proximate cause. Among the numerous factors leading to the collapse are the fracturing of Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party, which he brought into the current unity government with Benjamin Netanyahu; Netanyahu’s maneuvers to prevent Gantz from succeeding him as prime minister, per the terms of the coalition deal; and the decision of Gideon Sa’ar—formerly the Likud party’s number two—to break with Netanyahu to form his own party. Haviv Rettig Gur explains what the next election might bring:

If one thinks of the four elections held between April 2019 and March 2021 not as four distinct political events but as a single, long-running contest, Netanyahu’s situation appears to have worsened this week. Over the last three races, he led a Likud list that won between 32 and 36 seats at the ballot box. Likud now polls around 28.

Far more importantly, the diverse but vehemently anti-Netanyahu coalition once led by Gantz had struggled to clear the 61-seat threshold for a parliamentary majority. Over the past two weeks, by contrast, those parties that declare themselves opposed to Netanyahu’s continued rule are polling at close to 80 seats. All the major [polls] found that there may be a slim anti-Netanyahu majority on the center-right, which won’t require left-wing and Arab-majority parties to survive. That’s a dangerous sea-change for Netanyahu.

[Moreover], Netanyahu’s reputation for dishonesty has severely limited his ability to strike the deals that may save him. To stay in power after March, he must win outright. It is no longer enough to fight his opponents to a draw, as he did over the last three races.

The right, [meanwhile], has grown in the polls compared to last year. Parties that self-identify as right-wing (including the ḥaredi factions) now account for roughly 80 Knesset seats. Yet the anti-Netanyahu camp has grown too. The divide over Netanyahu no longer tracks the left-right divide.

Read more at Times of Israel

More about: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Election 2021, Israeli politics, Knesset

Expand Gaza into Sinai

Feb. 11 2025

Calling the proposal to depopulate Gaza completely (if temporarily) “unworkable,” Peter Berkowitz makes the case for a similar, but more feasible, plan:

The United States along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE should persuade Egypt by means of generous financial inducements to open the sparsely populated ten-to-fifteen miles of Sinai adjacent to Gaza to Palestinians seeking a fresh start and better life. Egypt would not absorb Gazans and make them citizens but rather move Gaza’s border . . . westward into Sinai. Fences would be erected along the new border. The Israel Defense Force would maintain border security on the Gaza-extension side, Egyptian forces on the other. Egypt might lease the land to the Palestinians for 75 years.

The Sinai option does not involve forced transfer of civilian populations, which the international laws of war bar. As the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other partners build temporary dwellings and then apartment buildings and towns, they would provide bus service to the Gaza-extension. Palestinian families that choose to make the short trip would receive a key to a new residence and, say, $10,000.

The Sinai option is flawed. . . . Then again, all conventional options for rehabilitating and governing Gaza are terrible.

Read more at RealClear Politics

More about: Donald Trump, Egypt, Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula