On Wednesday, the Iran-backed Hizballah militia fired at least one anti-aircraft missile at an IDF surveillance drone over southern Lebanon. Despite claims by Lebanese news sources to the contrary, Israeli officials have made clear that the missile missed its target. But what might have happened if had hit the Israeli drone, asks Alex Fishman:
[First], the Israel Air Force would have struck the anti-aircraft battery responsible or similar Hizballah targets, and the northern border could have erupted into heavy exchanges of fire. Worse still, Hizballah knew that if it had succeeded in felling the drone, Jerusalem would definitely respond, and intended to remind Israel that the “quiet border” in the north is the most explosive and easiest to ignite.
It is fair to assume, [however], that neither Israel nor Hizballah has any real interest in igniting the frontier. The two sides apparently have mutual deterrence: Hizballah acts against Israel in a restrained and measured manner and Israel makes a supreme effort not to harm Hizballah members and does not openly attack the organization’s military capabilities in Lebanon. But this only works until someone decides to cross the line.
The Israel Air Force [fears] a violent, unpredicted eruption from a country that does not have an effective central government. This requires Israel to have maximum intelligence control, including a presence in the air. But Hizballah sees itself as the defender of Lebanon, and as such Israeli overflights are a violation of national sovereignty.
The situation could explode as soon as one of the parties decides it is not playing the game anymore. And it almost happened last week.
Read more on Ynet: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1maFIFgd