Today, Israelis go to the polls to choose a new Knesset for the fourth time in two years. The staff of the Times of Israel provide a useful explanation of the reasons the last government collapsed, and profile the 37 parties vying for votes. According to the latest polls, Likud remains the frontrunner, but Yesh Atid is expected to get the second-largest number of parliamentary seats—which means that its leader, Yair Lapid, has a chance of being prime minister:

Yesh Atid, which describes itself as a “centrist” party, has published and updated one of the most comprehensive platforms of any party running in recent years.

Among the platform’s many, many proposals: strengthening Knesset oversight over the cabinet and limiting the number of ministers; term limits on the post of prime minister; separating Israel from the Palestinians; writing a constitution; instituting civil marriage; strengthening anti-corruption rules in government; cutting and streamlining government regulation on the business sector; . . . expanding work opportunities for minorities; [and] incentivizing the switch to electric vehicles.

Among the several new parties running is New Hope, led by Likud defectors and tying for third place in the polls:

A former longtime Likud member, the New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar’s biggest selling point has been that he is not Benjamin Netanyahu, and he has declared he has lost faith in the premier.

The party says it will prioritize West Bank settlements and reform the judicial system, placing itself firmly on the right of Israel’s political spectrum. It says it is committed to the “realization of the natural and historic rights of the Jewish people in the Land of Israel” [and] supporting a free-market economy with “a fair promise of opportunity for all.” . . . The party’s platform includes . . . limiting the premiership to eight years, changing the electoral system to include some representatives elected by district, increasing aid for immigrants, increasing the number of public healthcare providers, and far-reaching reforms to the education system.

If there’s one lesson to be learned from the history of the Israel-Arab conflict, it’s never to be confident that an end is in sight. Ehud Yaari nevertheless—and with all due caution—points to some noteworthy developments:

The absolute primacy of “armed struggle” in Palestinian discourse has discouraged any serious attempt to discuss or plan for a future Palestinian state. Palestinian political literature is devoid of any substantial debate over what kind of a state they aspire to create. What would be its economic, foreign, and social policies?

One significant exception was a seminar held by Hamas in Gaza—under the auspices of the late Yahya Sinwar—prior to October 7, 2023. The main focus of what was described as a brainstorming session was the question of how to deal with the Jews in the land to be liberated. A broad consensus between the participants was reached that most Israeli Jews should be eradicated or expelled while those contributing to Israel’s success in high tech and other critical domains would be forced to serve the new Palestinian authorities.

Yet, the ongoing aftershocks from the ongoing war in Gaza are posing questions among Palestinians concerning the viability of armed struggle. So far this trend is reflected mainly in stormy exchanges on social-media platforms and internal controversies within Hamas. There is mounting criticism leveled at the late Mohammad Deif and Yahya Sinwar for embarking upon an uncoordinated offensive that is resulting in a “Second Nakba”—a repeat of the defeat and mass displacement caused by launching the war in 1948.

To be sure, “armed struggle” is still being preached daily to the Palestinian communities by Iran and Iranian proxies, and at least half the Palestinian public—according to various polls—believe it remains indispensable. But doubts are being heard. We may be reaching a point where the Palestinians will feel compelled to make a choice between the road which led to past failures and an attempt to chart a new route. It will certainly require time and is bound to cause fractures and divisions, perhaps even a violent split, among the Palestinians.