Making Sense of Israel’s Election

Today, Israelis go to the polls to choose a new Knesset for the fourth time in two years. The staff of the Times of Israel provide a useful explanation of the reasons the last government collapsed, and profile the 37 parties vying for votes. According to the latest polls, Likud remains the frontrunner, but Yesh Atid is expected to get the second-largest number of parliamentary seats—which means that its leader, Yair Lapid, has a chance of being prime minister:

Yesh Atid, which describes itself as a “centrist” party, has published and updated one of the most comprehensive platforms of any party running in recent years.

Among the platform’s many, many proposals: strengthening Knesset oversight over the cabinet and limiting the number of ministers; term limits on the post of prime minister; separating Israel from the Palestinians; writing a constitution; instituting civil marriage; strengthening anti-corruption rules in government; cutting and streamlining government regulation on the business sector; . . . expanding work opportunities for minorities; [and] incentivizing the switch to electric vehicles.

Among the several new parties running is New Hope, led by Likud defectors and tying for third place in the polls:

A former longtime Likud member, the New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar’s biggest selling point has been that he is not Benjamin Netanyahu, and he has declared he has lost faith in the premier.

The party says it will prioritize West Bank settlements and reform the judicial system, placing itself firmly on the right of Israel’s political spectrum. It says it is committed to the “realization of the natural and historic rights of the Jewish people in the Land of Israel” [and] supporting a free-market economy with “a fair promise of opportunity for all.” . . . The party’s platform includes . . . limiting the premiership to eight years, changing the electoral system to include some representatives elected by district, increasing aid for immigrants, increasing the number of public healthcare providers, and far-reaching reforms to the education system.

Read more at Times of Israel

More about: Gideon Sa'ar, Israeli Election 2021, Israeli politics, Yair Lapid

What a Strategic Victory in Gaza Can and Can’t Achieve

On Tuesday, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant met in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Gallant says that he told the former that only “a decisive victory will bring this war to an end.” Shay Shabtai tries to outline what exactly this would entail, arguing that the IDF can and must attain a “strategic” victory, as opposed to merely a tactical or operational one. Yet even after a such a victory Israelis can’t expect to start beating their rifles into plowshares:

Strategic victory is the removal of the enemy’s ability to pose a military threat in the operational arena for many years to come. . . . This means the Israeli military will continue to fight guerrilla and terrorist operatives in the Strip alongside extensive activity by a local civilian government with an effective police force and international and regional economic and civil backing. This should lead in the coming years to the stabilization of the Gaza Strip without Hamas control over it.

In such a scenario, it will be possible to ensure relative quiet for a decade or more. However, it will not be possible to ensure quiet beyond that, since the absence of a fundamental change in the situation on the ground is likely to lead to a long-term erosion of security quiet and the re-creation of challenges to Israel. This is what happened in the West Bank after a decade of relative quiet, and in relatively stable Iraq after the withdrawal of the United States at the end of 2011.

Read more at BESA Center

More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, IDF