In an interview with CNN in February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated the well-worn warning that the creation of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River is necessary “to ensure Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state.” This claim, which has been articulated by State Department officials since at least 1977, assumes that Israel must either continue to govern the Palestinians, and thus sacrifice its democratic character, or grant them citizenship, and thus, supposedly, cease to be a Jewish state. If this is true, notes Yossi Kuperwasser, it follows that Jerusalem must accept whatever terms are put forward by the Palestinians, or even withdraw unilaterally. Of course, to most Israelis, these theoretical dangers seem negligible compared to the tangible threats, known from very recent experience, of having their children blown up on buses and in pizza parlors, or hit by rockets on the way to school. In fact, Baker explains, the entire dilemma constructed by Blinken et al. is a false one:

Most of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza already live under Palestinian rule, and no one intends to dismantle the two entities that govern them. These are the Palestinian Authority, which functions as the ruling entity for the Palestinians living in the areas that Israel took from Jordan in a war initiated by Jordan in 1967, and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip that Israel had taken from Egyptian military control in 1967, and which Israel evacuated entirely in 2005 after transferring rule over the Palestinian population to the Palestinian Authority in 1994.

The number of Palestinians living in Area C [of the West Bank] under direct Israeli control is negligible, and if Israel were to extend its sovereignty over parts of that area, they would likely prefer to adopt the same arrangement that applies to the Arab population of eastern Jerusalem, namely, to become Israeli residents enjoying full rights of social security, freedom of movement inside Israel, and all the other advantages Israel has to offer, while at the same time remaining citizens of the Palestinian entity.

Secondly, if a permanent status agreement cannot be reached between Israel and the Palestinians, the existing status quo is far more stable and sustainable than the doomsday prophecy repeated by those who try to warn Israel. In fact, this status quo solves ongoing day-to-day tensions between the two parties.

Last week, the Lebanese parliament chose Joseph Aoun to be the country’s next president, filling a position that has been vacant since 2022. Aoun, currently commander of the military—and reportedly supported by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia—edged out Suleiman Frangiyeh, Hizballah’s preferred candidate. But while Aoun’s victory is a step in the right direction, David Daoud sounds a cautionary note:

Lebanon’s president lacks the constitutional authority to order Hizballah’s disarmament, and Aoun was elected as another “consensus president” with Hizballah’s votes. They wouldn’t vote for a man who would set in motion a process leading to their disarmament.

Habib Malik agrees that hoping for too much to come out of the election could constitute “daydreaming,” but he nonetheless believes the Lebanese have a chance to win their country back from Hizballah and, ultimately, make peace with Israel:

Lebanon’s 2019 economic collapse and the 2020 massive explosion at the Beirut Port were perpetrated by the ruling mafia, protected ever since by Hizballah. [But] Lebanon’s anti-Iran/Hizballah communities constitute a reliable partner for both the U.S. and Israel. The Lebanese are desperate to be rid of Iranian influence in order to pursue regional peace and prosperity with their neighbors. Suddenly, a unique opportunity for peace breaking out between Israel and Lebanon could be upon us, particularly given President Trump’s recent reelection with a landslide mandate. It was under Trump’s first term that the Abraham Accords came into being and so under his second term they could certainly be expanded.

As matters stand, Lebanon has very few major contentious issues with Israel. The precisely targeted and methodical nature of Israel’s war in Lebanon against Hizballah and what has unfolded in Syria make this outcome a far more attainable goal.