In the early years of the Syrian Civil War, Bashar al-Assad’s barbarous assault on his own people made him something of a pariah among Arab states—and Western ones as well. But now that most of the fighting is over, and the chances that Assad might fall are slim, countries that once tried to isolate the Syrian regime now seem to believe they must make their peace with it. Egypt led the way by calling in March for Damascus’s return to the Arab League, and the United Arab Emirates has been moving in a similar direction. Jonathan Spyer sees dangers in letting Syria back into the community of nations:
The problem is that while these efforts to “normalize” Assad’s status are making some headway on the international level, the situation on the ground in Syria is far from normal. Rather, the Syrian regime is profoundly weak. Foreign powers maintain powerful military and political structures on Syrian soil, controlling territory without any requirement to seek the permission of the nominal government in Damascus for their activities. Most significant of these is the [military infrastructure] maintained by Iran, which was activated on Monday night in the Mayadeen area against U.S. positions close to the al-Omar oilfield.
The current direction of events points to the prospect of a kind of “Lebanonization” or “Iraqification” of Syria; that is, the emergence of a situation in which a weak government in name only exists and is accepted internationally. Beneath this flimsy structure, a powerful, independent Iranian political-military capacity will have freedom of action, control significant territory, and be able to use the nominal central government as a useful cloak for its activities.
So where is Israel in all this? The diplomatic isolation of the regime is the ideal setting for the continued prosecution of Israel’s air campaign against the Iranian infrastructure in Syria. This campaign is designed to degrade and to slow Iran’s efforts, presumably in the hope of deterring with the Iranian project in Syria.
Israeli planners . . . are likely to take note of the inability and/or unwillingness of [interested parties] to curb or to prevent the growing reach and capacities of the Iranian project in Syria. “Normalization” for Assad is likely to mean severe complications for Israel.
Read more on Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security: https://jiss.org.il/en/spyer-iran-digs-deep-in-hollowed-out-syria/