Last Thursday, drones attacked a ship in the Gulf of Oman, killing two crew members. The ship is Japanese-owned and sails under a Liberian flag, but it is operated by an Israeli-owned company; one of the victims was Romanian, the other British. According to the governments of the U.S., the UK, and Israel, the Islamic Republic launched the drones from its own soil, apparently in response to IDF airstrikes on Syria last week that killed several Iranian soldiers. The attack marks an escalating maritime war between Jerusalem and Tehran. Yesterday, there seems to have been an attempted hijacking of another ship in the area, for which Iran is likely responsible as well. Yoav Limor assesses the situation:

Iran appears to have decided to try to create a new equation. . . . Instead of responding [to Israeli airstrikes] from Syrian soil through the use of its emissaries as it has done in the past, it chose to respond directly from Iran.

This shift is indicative of a number of things. Iran apparently believes it lacks the ability to respond effectively from Syria. The Quds Force, [the elite expeditionary branch of the Islamic Republic’s military], is also finding it difficult to maintain power in Syria ever since its commander Qassem Suleimani was assassinated by U.S. forces last year. . . . Most importantly, Iran feels confident enough to launch drones from its soil, something it has already done in the past, including in the attack on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019, and assumes it will not be made to pay a significant price for doing so.

Iran may have identified the ship as “Israeli” because of the citizenship of its owners, but for all intents and purposes, this was a Japanese-owned ship sailing under a Liberian flag. . . . Israel would be wise to use all of the diplomatic tools at its disposal to put the spotlight on Tehran. . . . At the same time, Israel must consolidate a clear policy on how it intends to respond should Iran continue these attacks. It must not accept the creation of a new deterrence equation in which everything Israeli or with ties to Israel around the globe becomes a target for attack, nor should it accept any limitations the Iranians try to impose on the air force’s offensive operations against their weapons smuggling in Syria.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.