In Yemen, Iran Is Preparing for Its Next War with Israel

In the past few weeks, Houthi rebels backed by Iran have escalated their attacks on Saudi and Emirati positions in Yemen. On September 4, they also launched multiple ballistic-missile and drone attacks on several Aramco facilities within Saudi Arabia. The U.S. removed some of its anti-missile batteries from Saudi Arabia a week later, rendering the kingdom even more vulnerable. The Houthis—who mark every missile and drone launch by chanting their slogan, “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam!”—are part of the network of militias and proxy groups Tehran dubs the “axis of resistance,” which also operate in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip. Michael Segall writes:

Iran has turned Yemen into its testing range. . . . The repeated Houthi airstrikes on targets deep in Saudi Arabia as well as ground battles in various areas of Yemen against the Saudi-led [anti-Houthi] coalition, provide Iran with extensive knowledge and operational experience in the use of various weapons. In some cases, members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, as well as members of Lebanese Hizballah, are involved in operating the Houthis’ systems and in training. Iran is also closely monitoring the operation of Saudi air-defense systems supplied by the United States.

[Iran diffuses its know-how] through instructors in various areas and visits by Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihad operatives to Iran to study the technology and means of production, and to coordinate the smuggling of components for the construction of heavy rockets, missiles, and other weapons. . . . During the May 2021 war in Gaza, several attempts were made by the terrorist organizations to launch Iranian-designed drones into Israeli territory. Iran is constantly working to equip all elements of the axis of resistance with asymmetrical capabilities for striking deep into Israeli territory and the lands of its regional rivals, mainly in the Gulf and Iraq.

In recent years, Iran has been trying to increase the linkage and fine-tune the coordination between the various components of the axis of resistance and improve their military-operational capabilities. According to Iran, the camp will eventually . . . be able . . . to act as one entity during a confrontation with Israel, the United States, or an Arab coalition, whenever Iran decides to do so.

Read more at Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

More about: Gaza Strip, Hizballah, Iran, Israeli Security, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

 

What a Strategic Victory in Gaza Can and Can’t Achieve

On Tuesday, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant met in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Gallant says that he told the former that only “a decisive victory will bring this war to an end.” Shay Shabtai tries to outline what exactly this would entail, arguing that the IDF can and must attain a “strategic” victory, as opposed to merely a tactical or operational one. Yet even after a such a victory Israelis can’t expect to start beating their rifles into plowshares:

Strategic victory is the removal of the enemy’s ability to pose a military threat in the operational arena for many years to come. . . . This means the Israeli military will continue to fight guerrilla and terrorist operatives in the Strip alongside extensive activity by a local civilian government with an effective police force and international and regional economic and civil backing. This should lead in the coming years to the stabilization of the Gaza Strip without Hamas control over it.

In such a scenario, it will be possible to ensure relative quiet for a decade or more. However, it will not be possible to ensure quiet beyond that, since the absence of a fundamental change in the situation on the ground is likely to lead to a long-term erosion of security quiet and the re-creation of challenges to Israel. This is what happened in the West Bank after a decade of relative quiet, and in relatively stable Iraq after the withdrawal of the United States at the end of 2011.

Read more at BESA Center

More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, IDF