In September, Saudi and Iranian representatives held talks aimed at defusing the longstanding tensions between their respective nations. Together with other diplomatic developments—such as several Arab states’ decision to resume normal relations with Tehran’s client, Bashar al-Assad—this suggests that the rivalry between the Islamic Republic and its allies, on the one hand, and a loose group of Sunni-majority, pro-Western states on the other may be dissolving, and with it the ties that bind the latter camp. Such a realignment could leave Israel—which is firmly aligned with the Saudis and other pro-Western regimes—facing Iran alone, and even undermine the strategic logic of the Abraham Accords. To Jonathan Spyer, however, such a dramatic shift is highly unlikely:
[T]he notion of a collapse of a pro-Western alliance in the region in the wake of a U.S. withdrawal is an exaggeration. But it derives to a degree from an earlier exaggeration in the opposite direction. The pro-Western alliance in the region was always a complex and somewhat fragile arrangement. Israel and the UAE, for example, while seeing a list of threats in common, have always prioritized different items on this list. For Israel, the Iranian threat is deemed paramount, the challenge of the Iranian nuclear program front and center, and all other issues secondary.
It should be noted that while there is undoubtedly a sense of flux in the strategic picture of the region at present, deriving from the U.S. change of focus, in the medium to long term this is likely to provide an additional advantage for Israel. Israel is the only country within this group of states that is able to provide a credible military threat against Iran, and specifically against the Iranian nuclear program.
In this regard, it should be noted that while it is often stated that Iran has, through its use of proxies, succeeded in partially “surrounding” Israel—through its control or partial control of proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—it is also the case that Israel appears to be following a diplomatic strategy which seeks similarly to surround Iran. This is attempted not, as in the Iranian case, by organizing proxies, but rather by seeking alliances and closer relations with countries in close proximity to Iran. Such countries include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and, notably, Azerbaijan, to Iran’s north.
Read more on Fathom: https://fathomjournal.org/its-too-soon-to-write-the-obituary-of-the-anti-iran-alliance-in-the-middle-east/