Despite ample assistance from Iran and Russia, and after over a decade of fighting, Bashar al-Assad has regained control over a mere 60 percent of his country. The Syria he now rules has a different makeup than the one he inherited from his father, in part due to loss of territory and mass flight, but also due to deliberate attempts by Tehran to create a Shiite population susceptible to its ideological agenda. Lilach Shoval explains:
In 2011, Syria was home to 21.3 million residents—59 percent Sunni Muslim, 11 percent Alawite Muslim [like Assad himself], and only 4 percent Shiite. However, the territory currently under Assad’s control is home to only 10 million people, with Shiite Muslims making up 10 percent of the population and Alawites 30 percent. . . . Many of the Shiite Muslims in Syria live in the southern part of the country—the Syrian Golan Heights on the border with Israel.
Meanwhile, as the war nears an end, civilian distress is growing. Young people are leaving Syria, and poverty is rife. Past experience has taught us that terrorist instigators are able to take advantage of civilian distress through charity organizations that provide food and fuel, thus winning the people’s hearts. This is how Hizballah operated in Lebanon and what Hamas does in the Gaza Strip.
Unsurprisingly, Iran is trying to use the situation in Syria to its own advantage, not necessarily with the assent of Assad, who opted for Russia as his ally in the war rather than Iran. Iran’s terrorist operations have a fertile recruiting ground in the Syrian Shiite population, and according to Israeli estimates, a few hundred individuals have already been recruited by Hizballah or Iran and its satellites.
It’s not certain whether the Israeli defense and security establishment is fully aware of the demographic trends under way.
Read more on Israel Hayom: https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/04/06/israel-concerned-demographic-shift-moving-iran-closer-northern-border/