President Biden’s visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia last month revived speculation about the possibility of normalization between the two countries, and in fact coincided with important steps in that direction: the opening of Saudi airspace to Israeli planes, the arrival of Israeli journalists in Jeddah directly from Tel Aviv, and the de-facto cooperation over the status of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir. Yet, for those expecting a major announcement about Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, the result was disappointment. Outlining several factors restraining the kingdom from establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel, Yoel Guzansky suggests what is happening amounts to a “creeping normalization.”
The conclusion drawn from the process so far that led to the Abraham Accords is that given suitable incentive and pressure, the Gulf countries could take steps that deviate from the Arab consensus and from their positions on the Palestinian issue. Therefore, it is possible that Riyadh will advance its relations with Israel regardless of progress on the Israel-Palestinian channel but rather in relation to compensation that it will receive from the United States. And indeed, relations between Washington and Riyadh—and even more so American attention to, and American leadership of, normalization in the Middle East—are of decisive importance.
If the Saudi leadership estimates that rapprochement with Israel will help it strengthen its relations with the United States, improve [its unflattering] image [in the eyes of most Americans], and earn economic and political dividends, it could take another step toward Israel.
The continuation and expansion of the existing normalization agreements are important to the connection between Jerusalem and Saudi Arabia, in part because they are meant to grant legitimacy to their subsequent expansion. . . . A push to advance and highlight the relations and certainly making them an internal Israeli political issue, as occurred surrounding President Biden’s visit to the Middle East, will create unrealistic expectations, increase pressure on the Saudis, and undermine the process.
Read more on Institute for National Security Studies: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/saudi-arabia-israel