How Israel Can Help the Iranian People, Protect Itself, and Work to Keep Gaza Calm

While much of the media’s attention is focused on the domestic and constitutional questions currently before the 25th Knesset, there are no shortage of strategic and security-related questions for Israeli leaders to pursue. Jacob Nagel explains how Benjamin Netanyahu and the other members of his coalition ought to approach them:

Israel must prepare for a broad and comprehensive campaign against Iran in the next few years. . . . The new government must do all it can to ensure that Israel will not stand alone in such a confrontation, but it must also prepare for this eventuality.

In parallel, Israel can and should persist with its effort to weaken the Iranian regime. This should include active support for the protests, which may be the first serious opportunity since the fall of the shah to bring down the regime. . . . Economically, Israel can fan the distrust of citizens in the economic and banking system by pointing to official corruption, encouraging withdrawals from the banks, and hastening the ongoing collapse of the [value] of the Iranian rial. In intelligence terms, Israel can release personal information about the senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and the Basij (IRGC’s domestic militia) operatives who are fighting and killing the protesters, and about anticipated movements of regime forces. Operationally, Israel can disrupt some of the state-sponsored capacities of key Iranian industries, encouraging walkouts, as well as cyberattacks affecting daily activities.

In Gaza, the question is not whether, but when the next major clash will occur. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad . . . have no interest in bringing quiet to the area, which is bound to undermine their rule in Gaza. The main goal of both the [Israeli] government and the military is to do all that is possible to preserve peace and quiet for the communities living next to the Gaza Strip and to prepare for the next round of battle.

Read more at Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

More about: Gaza Strip, Iran, Israeli Security


Hizballah Is Learning Israel’s Weak Spots

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.

Read more at Ynet

More about: Hizballah, Iron Dome, Israeli Security