After a week of closed-door meetings in Riyadh, John Hannah sums up the kingdom’s position on relations with the Jewish state thus:
“It makes sense for us to normalize with Israel. We share the same threats, enemies, and allies. But it will be difficult because for 50 years we’ve filled our people’s heads with hatred of Israel. We still have extremists. They will attack us. The Iranians will stir up instability. Our economy could suffer. Our standing as the leader of the Islamic world could suffer. The risks are real. We’re prepared to take them, but we need several things from the United States first to help us balance the risks.”
After explaining what exactly the Saudis want from the U.S., Hannah asks two obvious questions:
Isn’t progress on the Palestinian issue a prerequisite for normalization? The answer we got was an unequivocal “no,” followed by a vivid description of a Palestinian leadership incapable of making peace with Israel for fear of being killed by its own people. The Saudis will continue to press for a solution, but the Palestinian track is now separate from the normalization track. The latter will no longer be held hostage to the former, provided the Saudis can get what they need from the United States.
Are the Saudis serious? My impression was that they are, but skepticism is warranted. Are their demands for major improvements in the U.S.-Saudi bilateral relationship being presented as a take-it-or-leave proposition, or are they more an opening gambit subject to the give-and-take of negotiations? I’m not sure, but my hunch is that the bazaar is open.
Given the huge geopolitical stakes at play, it would behoove the United States to put the Saudis to the test. Making peace with the Arab and Muslim world’s richest and most influential state would obviously be a tremendous boon to Israel, America’s most important regional ally. It would also be a major victory for U.S. diplomacy, . . . one that neither of America’s great power adversaries, China or Russia, could ever hope to pull off.
More about: Israel-Arab relations, Palestinians, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Foreign policy, U.S.-Israel relationship