Last month, fighting broke out in Sudan between the militia of the former warlord Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti) and the country’s army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Russia, eager to expand its influence in Africa, is supporting both sides, while China too could use the conflict to develop its own presence in the region. Zineb Riboua explains the American interest in restoring order, and what Washington can do:
A civil war risks not just disrupting the regional economy but also turning Sudan back into a haven for terrorists. From there, terrorists could undermine efforts currently underway to stabilize the Sahel region, [the band of grassland just south of the Sahara, which stretches from Senegal to Eritrea]. And they could threaten more distant areas: it’s worth remembering that Osama bin Laden, before being expelled in 1996, spent five years in Sudan developing the terrorist organization with global reach that perpetrated the 9/11 attacks.
A primary strategic goal of the United States is to reduce the size of [Russia’s] foothold and, if possible, eliminate it. That will be no mean task, but the Biden team has partners who can help. Like the Russians, the Israelis also engage with both Burhan and Hemedti. Jerusalem seeks to retain Sudan as a signatory to the historic Abraham Accords. In Sudan, as with so many other issues these days, Saudi and Israeli interests align. Like Jerusalem, Riyadh has also avoided the temptation to pick a winner.
If the U.S. president Joe Biden places the Saudi-brokered talks between Burhan and Hemedti in the correct strategic frame, he will see them as one means to help bring the United States’ Middle Eastern partners, including Israel, closer together. The talks can serve as a tool not just to stabilize the Red Sea region but to deny it to Russia and China.
China, Russia, and Iran seek to undermine the U.S.-led order globally. The only way to elevate Washington’s status in the Red Sea is by directly working with allies who can, in this case, negotiate a cease-fire between Hemedti and Burhan. Therein lies the true opportunity: to restore relations with Arab allies and to develop the Abraham Accords into a strategic instrument in the competition with Moscow and Beijing.
Read more on Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/16/sudan-us-saudi-israel-russia-china-africa-geopolitics-civil-war/