Since its 2006 war with Hizballah, the Jewish state has been able to maintain relative calm on its northern border. The IDF has for the most part refrained from attacking the Iran-backed terrorist group in its South Lebanon stronghold, where it has an arsenal of some 120,000 rockets, while Hizballah has been reluctant to retaliate when the IDF strikes its positions in Syria. But Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer fear that the Shiite militia has been gradually eroding this uncomfortable status quo:
Hizballah can boast of several accomplishments over the past two years, including its claim that its own activities have forced Israel to scale back its operations in Lebanon’s airspace; the expanded presence of Hizballah operatives along the border with Israel in observation posts (which were constructed under the guise of Green Without Borders, a Lebanese environmental NGO); skirmishes with Israeli forces along the borders; and the self-confidence that [its leader Hassan] Nasrallah has demonstrated since the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon was signed in October 2022, which Nasrallah claims as a victory for Hizballah thanks to its threats against Israel.
In addition, Hizballah—like the other members of the [pro-Iran] axis—sees the internal Israeli dispute over [judicial reform] and the widespread protests against the Israeli government as an expression of Israel’s inherent weakness and mistakenly interprets this as a significant blow to its military strength. The false narrative that Nasrallah has spun, especially over the past twelve months and that has come to the fore in his speeches, is, it seems, the reason for the excessive daring that he has displayed during recent events.
Read more at Institute for National Security Studies
More about: Hizballah, Israeli Security, Lebanon