Since Israel launched Operation Shield and Arrow on Tuesday, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has fired over 800 rockets into the southern and central parts of the country—killing at least one, wounding several, and causing extensive damage. The IDF undertook the operation after the Iran-backed organization launched a barrage of 102 rockets at Israeli towns and villages last week. Thus far, Jerusalem has killed at least three senior PIJ commanders and destroyed numerous rocket-launching facilities. Yoav Limor takes stock, and draws some conclusions:
First: while Israel should not be itching for a fight in Gaza, it doesn’t need to shy away from it, especially when a small and brazen organization like PIJ is the provocateur. The organization has tried to create linkage between Judea and Samaria, on the one hand, and the Gaza Strip on the other, so that any deadly Israeli raid against terrorists in the West Bank would automatically lead to rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. Israel has now put a big flashing sign over that idea, sending the message that if it does not disabuse itself of that idea it will have to pay a price.
[Another] conclusion is that despite its inflammatory rhetoric, Hamas seeks to avoid a confrontation at present. To be more precise: it doesn’t want to be dragged into one by PIJ. Hamas, if and when it decides to enter the fray, will do it for its own reasons and at an opportune moment. This could happen sooner than we think—perhaps in response to the upcoming flag march to celebrate Jerusalem’s reunification next week. . . . If Israel acts wisely, . . . Hamas will prefer to keep things calm in the Gaza Strip and to continue building up its capabilities rather than be consumed by warfare.
[Finally], the overall fundamentals will not have changed even after the operation is over. Those on the Israeli side who gloated that we have managed to change the equation are advised to think again: this is the third time in three years that Israel has carried out this type of operation against PIJ. This means that any deterrent effect is short-lived and needs routine maintenance.
Read more on Israel Hayom: https://www.israelhayom.com/2023/05/11/operation-is-already-a-success-but-the-fundamentals-havent-changed/