The Israeli Left May Have Stopped Judicial Reform, but It Hasn’t Won Over the Public

According to recent polls (taken, one should note, before the fighting with Gaza resumed on Tuesday), the Likud would lose eight Knesset seats if an election were held tomorrow, while the other parties in Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition would lose another three or four. Conventional wisdom reasonably assumes that the stalled attempt at judicial reform, and the social unrest it brought about, are responsible for this shift. Yet, argues Michel Gurfinkiel, it is not Yair Lapid—who emerged as the leader of the anti-judicial-reform protests—and his secularist, center-left Yesh Atid party, who stand to gain from the prime minister’s loss:

The true winner is the right-of-center National Unity party, led by a former [IDF] chief-of-staff and defense minister, Benny Gantz, which rose to a projected 29 seats from twelve seats last November. That turns it into the opposition’s main group, well ahead of Yesh Atid.

For those in Likud who were losing faith in Mr. Netanyahu’s political wizardry, and those who, whatever their background, were concerned by a potential disruption of the economy or the army [during the protests], the former chief-of-staff looked like the only alternative, especially against Mr. Lapid.

Most of the conservative voters who helped Mr. Gantz to emerge over the past weeks would probably desert him if he again enters in a coalition with Mr. Lapid and the far left, as he did in the past. Conversely, his core supporters, who granted him twelve seats in 2022, are weary of an alliance with Mr. Netanyahu. The way out might be, ideally, a national-emergency government led on equal footing by both Likud and National Unity.

Read more at New York Sun

More about: Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Israeli politics, Yair Lapid

After Taking Steps toward Reconciliation, Turkey Has Again Turned on Israel

“The Israeli government, blinded by Zionist delusions, seizes not only the UN Security Council but all structures whose mission is to protect peace, human rights, freedom of the press, and democracy,” declared the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a speech on Wednesday. Such over-the-top anti-Israel rhetoric has become par for the course from the Turkish head of state since Hamas’s attack on Israel last year, after which relations between Jerusalem and Ankara have been in what Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak describes as “free fall.”

While Erdogan has always treated Israel with a measure of hostility, the past few years had seen steps to reconciliation. Yanarocak explains this sharp change of direction, which is about much more than the situation in Gaza:

The losses at the March 31, 2024 Turkish municipal elections were an unbearable blow for Erdoğan. . . . In retrospect it appears that Erdoğan’s previous willingness to continue trade relations with Israel pushed some of his once-loyal supporters toward other Islamist political parties, such as the New Welfare Party. To counter this trend, Erdoğan halted trade relations, aiming to neutralize one of the key political tools available to his Islamist rivals.

Unsurprisingly, this decision had a negative impact on Turkish [companies] engaged in trade with Israel. To maintain their long-standing trade relationships, these companies found alternative ways to conduct business through intermediary Mediterranean ports.

The government in Ankara also appears to be concerned about the changing balance of power in the region. The weakening of Iran and Hizballah could create an unfavorable situation for the Assad regime in Syria, [empowering Turkish separatists there]. While Ankara is not fond of the mullahs, its core concern remains Iran’s territorial integrity. From Turkey’s perspective, the disintegration of Iran could set a dangerous precedent for secessionists within its own borders.

Read more at Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security

More about: Iran, Israel diplomacy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey