At the age eighty-seven and reportedly in declining health, the Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has not yet named a successor. As he has held his position for eighteen years, and no elections have been held since 2005, there is no functioning mechanism to replace him if he were to leave office. The PA meanwhile suffers from declining legitimacy and is losing its hold over parts of the West Bank. Ghaith al-Omari warns that Abbas’s death could lead to violence that might well draw in Israel and destabilize Jordan, and considers what might be done to prevent such an outcome:
The PA, like the Arab governments it modeled itself on, was never democratic. Yet starting with attempts to deny Hamas the ability to govern after its 2007 parliamentary victory, Abbas abandoned all remaining checks and balances in favor of concentrating power in his hands. . . . Although this approach has brought Fatah, [the PA’s ruling faction of which he is the head], firmly under his control, the party’s base has narrowed and its appeal to young politically minded Palestinians has diminished. Abbas has dealt swiftly with party figures who have attempted to build a political base or who have become too popular.
A stable succession cannot be ensured once the process is in full swing. In the heat of the moment, the stakes will be too high for the competitors to be expected to cooperate. The process must begin now, while Abbas is still strong enough to shape it. He does not need to choose a successor. Instead, he need only create the process and rules for identifying and selecting capable leaders.
Expecting such a process to be fully democratic may be a step too far, given the split between Fatah and Hamas and the increasingly fragmented nature of Palestinian politics. But revitalizing Fatah’s ability to produce credible leaders could at least stabilize the succession process. This will mean readmitting expelled or alienated leaders to Fatah and allowing for open competition within the movement.
Abbas is unlikely to take those steps himself, which would run contrary to his leadership style. It should instead be established by the United States, which remains the only international actor with enough diplomatic heft to assemble a coalition of European and regional leaders capable of applying concerted pressure on Abbas. Although Washington should kickstart and lead this process, it should not oversee it directly. The United States should instead work in partnership with its Arab allies, who understand Palestinian politics and know all the players.
More about: Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, U.S. Foreign policy, West Bank