On Tuesday, Khader Adnan, a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) awaiting trial in an Israeli jail, succeeded in starving himself to death. Islamic Jihad, with the consent of Hamas, responded by firing some 100 rockets into southwestern Israel. After the IDF carried out retaliatory airstrikes, Egypt brokered a ceasefire, which went into effect on Wednesday morning. Ron Ben-Yishai takes stock:

Hamas . . . seeks to continue to enjoy the income from Gazans working in Israel and funds from Qatar while appearing to its people as an active partner in the Palestinian resistance. But why did Israel not respond more forcefully to over 100 rockets and why is the all-right-wing government doing nothing to restore deterrence along the border?

One possible explanation is that the current focus of the military is on the West Bank and the possible violence that could erupt in the wake of Khader Adnan [dying] in jail. Sooner or later [Israel] will have to launch a major operation in Jenin and Nablus to dissuade, at least temporarily, terror groups from action there. Another explanation is that Israel opted to end the latest cycle fearing the lack of international backing for an Israeli offensive after a prisoner died while in its custody.

The U.S. has been indicating to Jerusalem that it hopes for calm on the Palestinian front, especially in the West Bank, and a major Israeli operation in Gaza or even a significant bombing campaign there would help Palestinians drag Israel to the UN Security Council for condemnations supported by Russia, China, and perhaps even the U.S. Israel would also be required to call up reserve units and keep residents in the south in shelters, while the recent rockets caused little damage to the home front.

Israel’s only substantive gain this time around is that it did not succumb to Adnan’s demands that he be released due to his hunger strike, and [thus] may not be coerced by others in the future.

On the same day the cease-fire went into effect along the Israel-Lebanon border, rebel forces launched an unexpected offensive, and within a few days captured much of Aleppo. This lightening advance originated in the northwestern part of the country, which has been relatively quiet over the past four years, since Bashar al-Assad effectively gave up on restoring control over the remaining rebel enclaves in the area. The fighting comes at an inopportune for the powers that Damascus has called on for help in the past: Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Hizballah has been shattered.

But the situation is extremely complex. David Wurmser points to the dangers that lie ahead:

The desolation wrought on Hizballah by Israel, and the humiliation inflicted on Iran, has not only left the Iranian axis exposed to Israeli power and further withering. It has altered the strategic tectonics of the Middle East. The story is not just Iran anymore. The region is showing the first signs of tremendous geopolitical change. And the plates are beginning to move.

The removal of the religious-totalitarian tyranny of the Iranian regime remains the greatest strategic imperative in the region for the United States and its allies, foremost among whom stands Israel. . . . However, as Iran’s regime descends into the graveyard of history, it is important not to neglect the emergence of other, new threats. navigating the new reality taking shape.

The retreat of the Syrian Assad regime from Aleppo in the face of Turkish-backed, partly Islamist rebels made from remnants of Islamic State is an early skirmish in this new strategic reality. Aleppo is falling to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS—a descendant of Nusra Front led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani, himself a graduate of al-Qaeda’s system and cobbled together of IS elements. Behind this force is the power of nearby Turkey.