Besides concluding a China-brokered agreement with its traditional rival, Saudi Arabia, Tehran has made overtures to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Turkey. At the same time, the Islamic Republic has engaged in a campaign of maritime harassment directed at the U.S. and is escalating against Israel with West Bank terror and mischief in southern Lebanon. Kenneth Pollack explains that Iran’s goal of regional domination remains unchanged, and seeks to interpret its recent behavior:
After 40 years of unmitigated subversion and aggression, the Arab states know very well what Iran is capable of—especially if the United States isn’t around to block it. To this real threat, Tehran seems to be adding the inducement of better relations if the Arab world will shed its U.S. dependency and accept Iranian suzerainty instead.
Since the Americans seem ever less interested in the Middle East, Russia is tied down in Ukraine, and China still lacks the military muscle to take over as the regional strongman, a kinder, gentler Iran now seems inviting to frightened Arab states. It is why the new Iranian charm offensive has proven so effective, at least to a limited extent so far.
Meanwhile, Tehran’s continued aggressiveness toward the United States and Israel appears to complement its Arab strategy. Iran likely believes that continued attacks on Washington’s people and interests in the region will help speed the U.S. departure.
As for Israel, heating up the conflict there helps Iran to present the Arab states with a sharper dilemma: you can either join us and have peace and trade, or join Israel and have war. . . . Thus, the dual approach of coddling the Arab states while amplifying attacks on the United States and Israel is probably meant to drive a wedge between the Arab states and Iran’s principal nemeses. . . . What Iran fears most is reconciliation between the United States and its Arab allies, and further rapprochement between them and Israel.
Read more on Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/15/irans-grand-strategy-has-fundamentally-shifted/