In 2010, Syria was the only Arab state that posed a serious military threat to Israel. Egypt was friendly, Saddam Hussein was out of the picture, and other Arab countries had neither the desire nor the ability to wage war. After the uprising that began in 2011, the regime of Bashar al-Assad grew far weaker, while its army concentrated its efforts on killing its own people. The IDF, meanwhile, has carried out hundreds of airstrikes to stop Iran from establishing certain military capabilities in the country. Eden Kaduri, Yehoshua Kalisky, and Tal Avraham consider the possibility that, as the war winds down, Damascus might once again pose a conventional threat:
As the civil war began to ebb, and particularly in 2015–2018, the Syrian military underwent many structural changes, with the cooperation of Russia and Iran. Since 2018, the Syrian military renewed its fortification and the annual training to prepare for war against Israel, while at the same time trying to increase its independence. The regime in Damascus invested major sums in rebuilding the Syrian military, and there are force-buildup and reorganization measures, including new personnel appointments. This comes against the background of recent years of positive developments for the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Over the past decade, . . . the main focus of Israeli attention has been Iranian entrenchment on Syrian soil, the Shiite militias that operate freely in Syria, and Damascus’s role in arming Hizballah. Against this backdrop, there is a tendency to overlook the threat posed by a stronger Syrian military. The firing of an anti-aircraft missile from Syria into Israel in early July 2023, in response to an alleged Israeli airstrike on Syria, was a reminder of the current and potential threat.
According to estimates, before the civil war, [Syria’s] Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC), better known by its French acronym CERS—which is under the auspices of the Syrian Ministry of Defense and is responsible for manufacture and development of weapons for the military—was one of the most advanced research and development centers in the Middle East. . . . . CERS also provides arms and ammunition to Hizballah. . . . Over the past decade, CERS is estimated to have made a quantum leap in its capabilities, especially in the fields of precision munitions and the manufacture of UAVs and cruise missiles.
The Syrian military is still a long way from posing an immediate strategic threat to Israel. Many challenges remain before it recovers its full strength, led by insufficient funding and manpower to allow it to build up its forces. But Syria’s capability to produce arms and ammunition and the efforts underway to rebuild the military, partly through air-defense systems, as well as the regime’s chemical-weapons capabilities and the possibility that it could resume its nuclear program, signal that this is already [reemerging as a] threat.
Read more on Institute for National Security Studies: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/syrian-army-2023/