The Iran problem is also at the heart of whether the Israel-Hamas war will torpedo normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh. While there is reason to believe that the terrorists launched their assault with that goal in mind, John Hannah and Blaise Misztal don’t believe it is an inevitable outcome. The Saudi crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman (known as MBS) has indeed halted the normalization process, but he might also resume it after the fighting ends:
Prior to October 7, MBS thought he was moving into alignment with an Israel whose deterrent power was overwhelming and whose military was the most competent in the Middle East. Hamas’s slaughter blasted a hole in that assumption. Instead, it’s the kingdom’s most dangerous foe, Iran and its terrorist allies, that appear ascendant and capable of inflicting massive harm on all those who defy them.
Whether MBS’s pause turns into long-term postponement now depends critically on . . . Israel’s success in reestablishing its deterrent power by crushing Hamas’s military capabilities in Gaza while limiting, to the extent possible, the impact on Palestinian civilians. When the dust finally settles, what needs to be clear is that Hamas’s so-called victory of October 7 was at best short-lived and Pyrrhic, ultimately resulting in a devastating defeat for both the terror group and its Iranian sponsors.
Specifically, MBS must come away reassured that his original thesis for normalization—one based on a combination of overwhelming Israeli power and American security guarantees—remains the best bet for securing the kingdom’s future stability and prosperity. Achieving that outcome depends first and foremost on Israel, of course. But it won’t happen without the kind of unequivocal U.S. backing that Biden has superbly provided since the crisis erupted.
Read more on Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-770254