Given the terrorist group’s intense ideological commitments, its glorification of “martyrdom,” and the recent experiences of various militaries fighting jihadist groups, there is reason to think that Hamas will keep fighting until the last man. But there are also reasons to think otherwise, among them photographs that appeared yesterday in the Israeli press of the IDF detaining dozens of fighters who, presumably, had surrendered. Robert Satloff and Dennis Ross write:
In the fog of war in Gaza, the only certainty is that the survival of a substantial element of Hamas would be a political and diplomatic disaster. . . . Indeed, with a ceasefire leaving a battered but still operational Hamas in control of key parts of Gaza and therefore able to claim victory, Hamas’s rejectionist ideology will likely gain traction among Palestinians and throughout the Middle East.
In the current situation, Hamas is probably not close enough to battlefield defeat to consider the option of laying down its arms. It retains significant military capacity in southern Gaza and few of its highest-level leaders have been killed. If Israeli military operations in, around, and under Khan Younis begin to achieve their objectives however, this situation could change rapidly. If it appears that Hamas had lost command/control of most of its military units, if a critical mass of senior leaders were captured or killed, or if the trickle of street protest against Hamas rule in Gaza became a flood, pursuing Hamas’ capitulation would become a real policy option. It is important, therefore, to begin discussing and assessing the idea now.
In practical terms, Hamas is unlikely to consider laying down its arms—that is, surrender—unless its leadership believes it faces imminent annihilation.
More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, Israeli Security