Since October 7, Palestinians in Judea and Samaria have carried out 128 terrorist attacks that the Shin Bet (Israel’s internal security agency) judges “significant.” These include 112 shootings and two rocket launches, but not the many gunfights that have taken place between Israeli forces and local militants. Nevertheless, Hamas has not managed to carry out its plan to spark a mass uprising in the West Bank and draw the Jewish state into a two-front war. Neomi Neumann explains why:
Despite the ongoing violence, the numbers reveal a significant decline in terrorist attacks over the past three weeks compared to the huge spike seen in the first three weeks after October 7, which was three times the average recorded during the same period in 2022. The IDF’s daily operations in the West Bank are having an impact on the frequency and intensity of such incidents—indeed, the killing of senior terrorists, the seizure of arms caches, the introduction of new combat patterns (e.g., aerial fire), and extensive arrests all show that Israel has “taken off the gloves” post-October.
[Meanwhile], the Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas and senior Fatah figures have been careful to condemn Israel publicly and to call on the international community to protect Palestinians. . . . Yet beneath this implied support for groups that actively oppose Israeli occupation, many PA officials privately hope that the IDF succeeds in smashing Hamas and killing its leaders—the only scenario in which the PA would be able to return to Gaza.
The best explanation for the relative passivity of most West Bank Palestinians is . . . the traumatic memory of the second intifada, when they paid a huge price but failed to secure significant political achievements after four years of violence.
In other words, contrary to oft-heard assertions that fighting terrorism only creates more terrorists, Israel’s measured application of force has prevented attacks in the both the short and long run.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/why-west-bank-front-has-not-opened-so-far