Yesterday, Egypt held presidential elections, but there was never any doubt that the current head of state, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, will emerge triumphant. What is less clear is how Sisi will handle the difficult decisions he must make as the Israel-Hamas war continues. His country controls a border with Gaza, and has served as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas, including in recent hostage negotiations. It also has its own interests, which Ofir Winter, Morr Link, and Adam Sharon explain:
Egypt, under the current circumstances, is reluctant to assume responsibility for security in Gaza after the war, or to oversee any postbellum government, and is not inclined to participate in any international force deployed in the region.
Egypt also seems to oppose the idea that Israel should achieve all its objectives in the war: defeating Hamas, evading responsibility for governing Gaza, and handing the burden over to regional and international players indefinitely. Moreover, despite Egypt’s stance against using Gaza as a base for terror activities, it rules out any continued post-conflict Israeli military presence in the Strip, whether in the form of full reoccupation, a security zone, or buffers along the border.
Alongside the apparent disagreements between Jerusalem and Cairo regarding the postwar reality, the two countries share a long list of common interests, which could lay the foundation for future understandings. Among them are a mutual desire to weaken Hamas and demilitarize the Gaza Strip; to establish a stable regime in Gaza to prevent it from becoming a hub for terrorism targeting Israel and Egypt; to position Egypt as the main mediator and key actor in forging Gaza’s new reality; to curb the influence of the radical [Iran-led bloc] in the Middle East; and to strengthen regional initiatives aimed at peace, stability, and development.
In part, Winter, Link, and Sharon explain, Cairo is skeptical of Israel’s goals because it doesn’t think the IDF is capable of rooting out Hamas completely.
Read more on Institute for National Security Studies: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-egypt-war/